Pay No attention to the man behind the curtain !

By steven d keeler | Jan 21, 2014


Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming .


Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3, CMIP3; and 5, CMIP5; multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble.  The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters ...


extreme events


Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability .


Here we show that there are in fact robust projected changes in the spatial patterns of year-to-year ENSO driven variability in both surface temperature and precipitation. These changes are evident in the two most recent generations of climate models, using four different scenarios for CO2 and other radiatively active gasses.  By the mid - to late twenty-first century, the projections include an intensification of both El-Niño driven drying in the western Pacific Ocean and rainfall increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model reveal that robust projected changes in precipitation anomalies during El Niño years are primarily determined by a nonlinear response to surface global warming. Uncertain projected changes in the amplitude of ENSO-driven surface temperature variability have only a secondary role. Projected changes in key characteristics of ENSO are consequently much clearer than previously realized.


robust projections


Historical changes in El Niño and La Niña characteristics in an ocean reanalysis .


The variation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from the mid-nineteenth century until the beginning of the twenty-first century is explored using an ocean reanalysis. A comparison of the reanalysis with three sea surface temperature reconstructions shows that the timing of events is similar in all four products, however there are important differences in the strength and location of events. The difference between the reconstructions is sometimes larger than the difference between the reanalysis and a given reconstruction. These differences are larger in the first half of the record, a period for which there are relatively sparse observations. The reanalysis is used to explore decadal variability and trends in the frequency, duration, and propagation direction of ENSO events.


historical changes



Seems like this group is intent on showing global warming will affect natural cycles no matter how much contradictory data must be employed or tortured by reanalysis.  Likely they learned from Hansen’s failed prediction of a Super El Nino in 2006, so the safest haven for unsupported speculation is to have a model predict way into the future, so rigorous scientific testing and validation become impossible.

Trenberth must criticize the paper because he is hanging his hat on the current increase in La Nina-like conditions are hiding the heat. It all goes to show any researcher can make models to validate their personal bias. Despite the controversy and valid scientific criticisms, these papers will be added to the list of papers “proving” a global warming consensus.  It's all about maintaining the agenda, you see.


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