NOT SO GREEN  |  January 2016 ENSO Update

By steven d keeler | Jan 13, 2016
Source: Bob Tisdale


From Bob Tisdale

First, sea surface temperature-based indices and the Southern Oscillation Index indicate the El Niño has peaked. And we discussed in the December update the upwelling Kelvin wave that will be effecting (decreasing) El Niño conditions.  Those indicators do not mean the El Niño will immediately stop impacting weather conditions around the globe. Strong El Niño conditions still exist in the tropical Pacific, and there is still a large volume of El Niño-related warmer-than-normal waters below the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (see animation from GODAS website here). Strong El Niño conditions are likely to exist through February to April and weak El Niño conditions might last until June.

Second, there are many persons and government agencies around the globe claiming that precipitation-based weather events are worse than ever during this El Niño due to human-induced global warming.  One wonders how they can make that claim when the consensus (the average) of the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report shows no long-term increase in global precipitation from 1861 (the start year of the mean of the climate model outputs) to 1999 (the end of the 20th Century)…just some volcano-related dips and rebounds.

See Here

Then again, I don’t believe anyone has ever claimed that alarmists display common sense.


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