Nature Geoscience | Letter

By steven d keeler | Aug 20, 2014

Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled —  

Here we estimate the contribution of internal variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using segments of unforced climate model control simulations that match the observed climate variability.

Warming to recommence

Despite the warming hiatus, Knutti is convinced there is no reason to doubt either the existing calculations for the climate activity of greenhouse gases or the latest climate models. “Short-term climate fluctuations can easily be explained. They do not alter the fact that the climate will become considerably warmer in the long term as a result of greenhouse gas emissions,” says Knutti. He believes that global warming will recommence as soon as solar activity, aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and weather phenomena such as El Niño naturally start returning to the values of previous decades.

 

So when it’s not warming, the reasons are natural (and incomplete data), but when it’s warming, the reasons are man made (and the data is good) ?

‘Knutti believes that global warming will recommence as soon as solar activity, aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and weather phenomena such as El Niño naturally start returning to the values of previous decades.’

Why should they ?

As the warmists now say the records show temperatures rose rapidly in the 80s and 90s, but in 1999 the temperature data for the US did not show a rapid rise in the 80s and 90s, it was slight rise during the 80s and a drop in the 90s, with the 1930s being the hottest decade for the US in the 20th century. The rapid rise in the 80s and 90s in the US now shows after the temperature data was adjusted ( See GISS adjustments ). So it surprises me that people just look at that adjusted data and repeat it, quote it, and believe it as if it is obvious. Many of us lived through the 80s and 90s here in the US, there was no talk in the news or by weathermen that the temperature was rising rapidly in those decades, I never felt like it was getting hotter, I never heard anyone make any comment even suggesting they noticed the slightest rise in temperature was happening, we talked about the weather all the time, watched weather reports and listened to weathermen all the time and no one I heard ever, in all those 20 years, ever noticed or suggested anything about it getting hotter. We lived through the hockey stick, supposedly the greatest rise temperature in 1000 years or more, and no one then, noticed a thing.

The 98 El Nino released warmth that was already there prior to the onset of the El Nino. So the questions are, 1) where did that warmth come from ? Yes it was in the oceans, but 2) how did it get in the oceans and from what source ? And 3) did the tiny increase in anthropogenic CO2, even with water vapor amplification of downwelling longwave infrared, add to the larger source in a measurable way ? And 4) how does it come out to warm the air ?

Don't expect the eco facists of Edmonds to answer any such questions, they are too busy repeating the "fraudulent agenda".  Even many Alarmed Ones and their lab coated shills now acknowledge the pause ( read that as STOP ) in warming.

I wonder if the Edmonds eco loons would put their own money into a Pension Fund that changed their forecast models of returns downwards, and tinkered with share prices to raise them upwards ?

To paraphrase anothers words, “A Warmist climate scientist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.”

 

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